COLOMBIA, THE OUTLIER

Colombia has anchored South American demand here for years. In July it grew 5%. Brazil grew 47%. That's the visible change. The more useful one is happening underneath it, because South America didn't simply get bigger in July. It

swapped out a large part of its membership.

Argentina sent 4,862 visitors, up 69%. Chile rose 158%, Uruguay 115% and Peru 83%. Venezuela, which sent more than 12,000 visitors in the same period last year, fell 76% for the month and is down to fewer than 5,000 for the year. This is replacement, not just growth. The region is arriving from different countries than it did twelve months ago.

For your calendar that matters more than the regional total, because these guests don't book alike. A Colombian booking averages 5.5 nights. An Argentine one averages 7.4, a Uruguayan 7.6 and a Chilean 7.3. As the Southern Cone takes a larger share of South American arrivals, the region is quietly becoming a better calendar fit rather than simply a bigger one. Regional demand used to mean filling gaps between longer

reservations. It's starting to mean filling the weeks themselves.

The United States came back.

US arrivals rose 10% to 18,476 after June's 6% decline. Last month we argued the June softness was a seat capacity effect from World Cup travel rather than weakening demand. July settled it. Anyone who cut rates in response to the June print was reacting to something that had already reversed.

One thing to keep an eye on.

Beneath Europe's total, the smaller markets continue to thin. Belgium fell 26% in arrivals and 30% in nights. German nights slipped 7%. Italy, the United Kingdom and France all posted strong percentage gains, but from bases small enough that they can't offset a soft Belgian summer.

European demand here is Dutch, plus a tail that keeps getting longer and thinner. That isn't a problem in a month like July. It would become one in a month where the Dutch calendar isn't carrying the load.